Dear Guests!
Our year long game called Lipót could calculate it has come to an end.
Thank you for playing!
To commemorate the 132nd anniversary of his birth, we would like the guests who stay at our apartments between 9 February 2012 and 8 February 2013, to participate in a game.
We have placed a jar in each of our apartments that contain the same amount of marbles. We placed the marbles in a jar, in the presence of a notary, on 18 January 2012. The notary then sealed and notarized them.
Those guests that stay at our apartments between 9 February 2012 and 8 February 2013 could guess how many marbles there are in the jars. The jars could be handled but they couldn't be opened.
According to the notary's minutes there were
621
marbles in the jar.
Congratulations to the winner of our game,
Konyári Dániel
who has won the opportunity to spend two nights with us along with his family free of charge.
Number of guesstimates
The smallest and the largest guesstimate compared to the number of marbles in the jar
The best guesstimate, the number of marbles in the jar and the average of all guesstimates
Guesstimates in ascending order
Deviation of guesstimates from the number of marbles in the jar
Our game was dedicated to Fejér Lipót but inspired by an experiment of an english scientist called Francis Galton. The experiment was published in Vox Populi, an essay published in 1907.
Galton describes that he attended an animal exhibition in Plymouth, England, which organised a weight-judging competition. Attendees had to estimate the weight of an ox, and those who guessed most successfully received prizes. After the competition has concluded, Galton borrowed the 787 tickets used for guessing. He felt that they would prove useful in examining the accuracy of the judgement of people in specific cases. He found that the average of guesstimates (547.5 kg) deviated only by 3.9 kilograms from the actual weight of the ox (543.4 kg), which was less than 1 percent.
Our game provided similar results. The average of all guesstimates (621.45) differs only by less than a marble from the actual solution! Even our most accurate player couldn't guess this well.
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